The ‘morning line’ for the Kentucky Derby as set by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia was released earlier in the day on Wednesday in conjunction with the post position draw for the race. Doug O’Neill’s undefeated colt Nyquist was installed as the 3-1 favorite. The ‘morning line’ is the first ‘official’ odds release for the Kentucky Derby and is where betting will start on Friday morning–Kentucky Oaks day.
The rest of the morning line odds for the Kentucky Derby look like this:
NYQUIST 3/1
EXAGGERATOR 8/1
MOHAYMEN 10/1
GUN RUNNER 10/1
CREATOR 10/1
MOR SPIRIT 12/1
BRODY’S CAUSE 12/1
OUTWORK 15/1
DESTIN 15/1
DANZING CANDY 15/1
MO TOM 20/1
MY MAN SAM 20/1
WHITMORE 20/1
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20/1
SHAGAF 20/1
OSCAR NOMINATED 20/1
LANI 30/1
MAJESTO 30/1
TOM’S READY 30/1
TROJAN NATION 50/1
Santa Anita Derby winner Exaggerator (8-1) is the second choice in betting and the only other horse other than the favorite priced at single digit odds. Exagerator is a very divisive horse among railbirds–his detractors think that he hasn’t accomplished anything other than winning the Santa Anita Derby in a race that had become a complete crapshoot due to the weather and track conditions. His proponents cite his versatility and ability to adjust to whatever form the race might take. They also like the fact that he’s a proven winner on an ‘off’ track. His Santa Anita Derby win came on a sloppy track made muddy by torrential rains in Southern California the week before. There are many years where the conditions in the Kentucky Derby aren’t much different.
Next up is a horse that spent most of the early part of the year as the presumptive Kentucky Derby betting favorite and darling of the horse racing media. Mohaymen has dropped to the third choice at 10-1 (along with two other horses). Mohaymen may have been unfairly downgraded by the horse racing cognoscenti after his fourth place finish in the Florida Derby (won by Nyquist). It is his only career loss against six career victories. His performance does remain somewhat inexplicable in light of his career ‘body of work’ in that it was completely non-competitive. Trainer Kieran McLaughlin thinks the rain and poor track conditions for the Florida Derby played a big part in the loss. He also suggests that Mohaymen didn’t like the heat and humidity of South Florida. If this is true, the fact that the forecast for Saturday is calling for partly cloudy skies, high humidity and temps in the mid-80′s raises some concern.