Kentucky Derby Prop Bets: Will There Be A Triple Crown Winner?

Posted on: Apr 04, 2016

The Kentucky Derby is set for May 7, 2016 at Louisville’s iconic Churchill Downs Racetrack. With his resounding victory in the Florida Derby the role of Kentucky Derby betting favorite has been taken over by the Doug O’Neill trained Nyquist. He’s got company at the top of the betting board–although he beat Mohaymen at Gulfstream last Saturday Kieran McLaughlin’s horse still has plenty of support among handicappers.

Kentucky Derby futures betting odds can be found at both the Wynn Las Vegas as well as the William Hill family of sportsbooks throughout Nevada. Not surprisingly, Nyquist is favored at both sportsbooks–he’s 7/2 at William Hill and 4/1 at the Wynn. Mohaymen is the #2 choice at William Hill (4/1) but his support has slipped substantially at the Wynn where Mor Spirit is the second choice behind Nyqist at 9/1. Mohaymen is the #3 choice at the Wynn right behind Mor Spirit at 10/1.

William Hill is also offering a pair of proposition bets on the Kentucky Derby. Here’s the first:


YES +850
NO -1450

American Pharoah ended a drought of nearly 40 years without a Triple Crown winner in 2015 becoming only the twelfth horse in history to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in the same year. My hunch is that we won’t go another 40 years without a Triple Crown winner but that being said the value sure looks to be on the ‘No’ here. There’s so much that has to ‘go right’ for even a top level candidate to win the Triple Crown. That’s a tough thing to handicap this far out. If I am going to do it, however, I want to be completely certain that I’m getting a nice ‘plus money’ overlay if I’m right. The +800 for the ‘Yes’ looks *way* too low. Consider what you’re doing–you’re being asked to bet that a horse will qualify for the Kentucky Derby, win the race, win the Preakness and win the Belmont. In essence, it’s a ‘four team parlay’ but more difficult since all four components aren’t independent. But even a four team parlay pays 10/1 and that’s not considered a good overlay since the true odds are just over 12/1.

This wager will be available at just about every sports book on the planet as we get closer to the race. Once we get a better ‘feel’ for what the Kentucky Derby field will look like we’ll address it in more detail.