2017 Kentucky Derby Odds

Of all the information necessary to bet on the Kentucky Derby none are more important than the betting odds. Once betting opens for the race the odds then move in accordance with the money wagered on certain horses.  Public sentiment can make a morning line 'also ran' into a favorite and an overlooked horse can become a favorite of 'wise guys' and attract a lot of betting action.   Watching the odds move at this point can reveal information about who the public likes (and doesn't like).

Kentucky Derby Odds - Updated May 7, 2016

HORSE ODDS
NYQUIST

2/1

EXAGGERATOR 5/1
GUN RUNNER 9/1
MOHAYMEN 11/1
MOR SPIRIT 12/1
CREATOR 16/1
MO TOM 18/1
MY MAN SAM 18/1
DESTIN 19/1
WHITMORE 20/1
BRODY'S CAUSE 22/1
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 25/1
LANI 27/1
OUTWORK 27/1
DANZING CANDY 30/1
OSCAR NOMINATED 38/1
TOM'S READY 41/1
TROJAN NATION 43/1
MAJESTO 66/1
SHAGAF 74/1

What are odds versus morning line odds?

Anyone can predict the odds (or probability) of a horse winning the Kentucky Derby, but this opinion is different than the official morning line odds that are published the day of the Kentucky Derby.  To make things easy, Churchill Downs publishes their morning line odds for the public to help them understand how much money they will be paid if the horse they are betting on wins the Kentucky Derby.  Regardless, these are not the final odds that will be used that day, and morning line odds are considered to be an estimate.

Differences between handicapper and oddsmaker

Handicappers are everywhere, and many bettors will consult with them to help figure out which horses will actually win.  Naturally, if a handicapper has a high percentage of wins for predictions, they will be popular with bettors.  Oddsmakers figure out which horse is most likely to win based on how everyone is betting so far, and sets the official bets on the betting slips. 

However, a handicapper uses various kinds of data about horses to figure out which horse is likely to win.  In many cases, the handicapper is right about the winner of the race, while the oddsmakers’ hands are tied since it is the public and the way they are contributing bets to the betting pool that ultimately sets the betting odds. 

One of the main ways that handicappers predict the outcome of an event like the Kentucky Derby is with pedigree.  If the horse has a certain number of winners in their family, the handicapper will pick that horse as the likely winner.  Another interesting way to determine a race outcome is by using sophisticated racing data programs.  Often, these are private systems, and the handicappers will publish their predictions for events like the Kentucky Derby by factoring pedigree, past performances, and other variables.

Who is the official morning lines oddsmaker at Churchill Downs?

The morning of the Kentucky Derby, the official oddsmaker puts the numbers in the race day programs, and the tote board at the racetrack is updated throughout the day with the new odds.  The name to look for in association with Churchill Downs and the official odds is Mike Battaglia.  This system of oddsmaking was defined when pari-mutuel betting began at Churchill Downs in 1875.

How do they come up with morning line odds?

One of the oddities of the odds used to determine the bets you place is that they are determined by public opinion. People betting before the race on future wagers might influence these numbers.  Nevertheless, it is the official oddsmaker that will make the odds used to determine betting payouts, and their word is the final say.  Another factor that can throw off new bettors is the fact that the oddsmakers can change the odds throughout the day before the actual race begins.  This also means that the odds information on a betting slip online could change.

For example, one thing that is helpful is to listen to see if the horse you are betting on has been scratched at the last minute.  Sadly, the horses that everyone seems to think will win are always going to pay out poorly.  For this reason, if a horse is determined to win in last place, and the horse wins first place, the 50-to-1 odds for the longshot will end up being about $103 for a $2 bet.

What to do with morning line odds and how to place a bet with them

When bettors see that there is a “favorite” among the morning line odds, their first instinct is to place all of their money on that horse.  Sadly, the favorite does not pay out very well, and being the favorite does not mean that horse will definitely win the Kentucky Derby.  Instead, having strategy with betting means dividing up your money between a few choice bets. 

One thing that is always true is that buying a single ticket for the longshot can really pay off.  In addition to buying a ticket for your horse to win at first place, you can also place a bet for win (first), place (second), or show (third).  If your horse wins any of those places, you get a return on your bet.

What are the payouts for a $2 bet based on morning line odds?

To get a better idea of how much money your odds will pay off or payout, take a look at the list below.

1-to-5 = $2.40-$2.70
2-to-5 = $2.80-$2.90
1-to-2 = $3 to $3.10
3-to-5 = $3.20 to $3.50
4-to-5 = $3.60 to $3.90
1-to-1 = $4 to $4.30
6-to-5 = $4.40 to $4.70
7-to-5 = $4.80 to $4.90
3-to-2 = $5 to $5.10
8-to-5 = $5.20 to $5.50
9-to-5 = $5.60 to $5.90
2-to-1 = $6 to $6.90
5-to-2 = $7 to $7.90
3-to-1 = $8 to $8.90
7-to-2 = $9 to $9.90
4-to-1 = $10 to $10.90
9-to-2 = $11 to $11.90
5-to-1 = $12 to $13.90
6-to-1 = $14 to $15.90
7-to-1 = $16 to $17.90
8-to-1 = $18 to $19.90
9-to-1 = $20 to $21.90
10-to-1 = $22 to $23.90
15-to-1 = $32 to $33.90
20-to-1 = $42 to $43.90
30-to-1 = $62 to $63.90
50-to-1 = $103 to $105

Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds/Odds 2006 to 2016

Are you curious about the changes that occur during the day before the race for the morning line odds versus the ones on your bet was actually calculated from?  Although there are future wagers available, the betting that takes place before the race begins is sometimes based on different numbers than what was represented earlier in the day. 

For instance, if a horse is withdrawn from the race because it does not pass a drug test or is sick, the odds and payouts can change.  To get a better idea, take a look at the morning line odds for the past ten years of Kentucky Derby winners versus the betting payout odds.

2016: Nyquist’s morning line odds were 3-to-1, and payout odds later in the day were 2-to-1.  The bets placed on Nyquist were  $7,761,084.00, and the total betting pool for all the horses was $31,579,434.00.  Bettors that bet on Nyquist to win first place were given $6.60 on a $2 bet.

2015: American Pharoah’s morning line odds were 5-to-2, and payout odds later in the day were 3-to-1.  The payout for American Pharoah to win first place was $7.80 on a $2 bet.

2014: California Chrome’s morning line odds were 5-to-2, and payout odds later in the day were 2-to-1.  The payout for California Chrome was $7 on a $2 bet.

2013: Orb’s morning line odds were 7-to-2, and payout odds later in the day were 5-to-1.  The payout for Orb was $12.80 on a $2 bet.

2012: I’ll Have Another’s morning line odds were 12-to-1, and payout odds later in the day were 15-to-1.  The payout for I’ll Have Another was $32.60 on a $2 bet.

2011: Animal Kingdom’s morning line odds were 30-to-1, and payout odds later in the day were 20-to-1.  The payout for Animal Kingdom was $43.80 on a $2 bet.

2010: Super Saver’s morning line odds were 15-to-1, and payout odds later in the day were 14-to-1.  The payout for Super Saver was $18 on a $2 bet.

2009: Mine That Bird’s morning line odds of 50-to-1, and payout odds later in the day were the same.  The payout for Mine That Bird was $103.20 on a $2 bet.

2008: Big Brown’s morning line odds were 3-to-1, and payout odds later in the day were 2-to-1.  The payout for Big Brown was $6.80 on a $2 bet.

2007: Street Sense’s morning line odds were 4-to-1, and payout odds later in the day were 9-to-2.  The payout for Street Sense was $11.80 on a $2 bet.

2006: Barbaro’s morning line odds were 4-to-1, and payout odds later in the day were 6-to-1.  The payout for Barbaro was $14.80 on a $2 bet.

Live Betting Odds:

Once betting opens for the race the odds then move in accordance with the money wagered on certain horses.  Public sentiment can make a morning line 'also ran' into a favorite and an overlooked horse can become a favorite of 'wise guys' and attract a lot of betting action.   Watching the odds move at this point can reveal information about who the public likes (and doesn't like).

Updated 2017 Kentucky Derby Odds Information::

Check back often for the latest Kentucky derby betting odds direct from Churchill Downs!

These Kentucky Derby Odds were written by DerbyCraze.com and earned a 4.5/5 rating.