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2015 Kentucky Derby Odds - Betting Odds

2015 Kentucky Derby Odds

Of all the information necessary to bet on the Kentucky Derby none are more important than the betting odds. The name of the game in horse racing is valuation - at the right price the longest shot becomes a 'positive EV' selection and at the wrong price even the strongest favorite becomes unbettable.  Not knowing or understanding betting odds is like going shopping without understanding how products are priced. Parimutuel odds change all the time up until the start of the race and unlike sports betting they're not 'locked in' when you purchase your ticket - the official payout information isn't known until after the race is run.

Kentucky Derby Odds

Here’s ten of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby and their current betting odds.  This list is in no specific order.  It’s common for prices to vary from one book to another based on how much money they’re holding on various horses.

HORSE NAME ODDS
AMERICAN PHAROAH 3/1
CARPE DIEM 7/2
DORTMUND 4/1
UPSTART 12/1
MATERIALILTY 12/1
MUBTAAHIJ 12/1
FROSTED 14/1
INTERNATIONAL STAR 15/1
FIRING LINE 15/1
EL KABEIR 22/1

 

Morning Line Odds

The 2015 Kentucky Derby is scheduled for May 2, 2015 from the iconic Churchill Downs race track in Louisville, Kentucky.  Actual ‘track odds’ won’t be available until the week of the race.  There are futures betting markets in a variety of betting jurisdictions as well as a futures betting pool in Kentucky.  In Las Vegas, the Wynn Race and Sportsbook along with the William Hill chain of sports books is taking early action on the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.

FUTURES ODDS PRICES ARE STARTING TO STABALIZE

If you were hoping to get a big price on a top Kentucky Derby contender you’re out of luck. For that type of overlay you need to start early in the betting cycle—in some cases, while the prospective Kentucky Derby contenders are still in their two year old campaign. And that’s the trick—to get the favorable prices it’s necessary to take a ‘leap of faith’ with horses before they’ve established themselves on the track. This takes a lot of research and a little bit of luck. The rewards can be astounding, however, and you could wind up holding a ticket on a top contender at a big price. For example, the current third choice in the Wynn Las Vegas Kentucky Derby betting market is Carpe Diem at 7/1. His opening price was 100/1. Second choice Dortmund is currently 9/2 but opened at 150/1. The strategy is to isolate a group of potential contenders and hope that a few of them actually make it to the race at a big price.

FEW LONGSHOTS LEFT ON THE BETTING BOARD

In the latest Wynn Las Vegas futures update there are 37 listed betting interests. When the Kentucky Derby futures betting opened there were well over 300 listed and as recently as mid-February there were still over 200 horses available for wagering. With twenty spots available in the Kentucky Derby there just aren’t many ‘speculative plays’ left on the board. There are several horses priced at 150/1 or higher and one at 250/1—that’s Bridget’s Big Luvy who is the longshot of the field. The problem is that even at that high price you’re getting worse than ‘true odds’. Right now Bridget’s Big Luvy isn’t in the top 50 in Derby qualification points. He is expected to run in the upcoming Arkansas Derby but would need to win the race (worth 100 qualification points) to be guaranteed a spot in the Derby. A second place finish is worth forty qualification points but that would leave him ‘on the bubble’.

Bridget’s Big Luvy at least has a chance to pick up some points. Other horses at 150/1—like the Bill Mott trained Tiz Shea D—have to hope that enough horses ahead of them scratch from Kentucky Derby contention to give them a chance to make the field. While there are always a fair number of horses that qualify for the Derby but don’t run due to injury or other issues, Tiz Shea D needs seven horses ahead of him (based on current point standings) to drop to get into the field.

In other words, if you want to get a triple digit price at this stage of the game it’ll be necessary to take a flyer on a horse that might not even make the Kentucky Derby field.

Live Betting Odds

Once betting opens for the race the odds then move in accordance with the money wagered on certain horses. Public sentiment can make a morning line 'also ran' into a favourite and an overlooked horse can become a favourite of 'wise guys' and attract a lot of betting action. Watching the odds move at this point can reveal information about who the public likes (and doesn't like).

Official Pay Information

Once the Kentucky Derby has been run and the order of finish confirmed the track tote board will post pay information for the top three horses ('win, place and show') and the exotic wagers like the exacta and trifecta. This will be based on the actual betting for the race minus the track takeout.

Finding Accurate Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds

The most important thing to remember is that you want to get your odds for the Kentucky Derby at a reputable website (like ours) to make sure you get accurate information before you make any bets on the horse race in 2015. There are quite a few websites out there that are full of misinformation. Making sure you stick with a reputable website like ours is important when it comes to Kentucky Derby odds.

These Kentucky Derby Odds were written by DerbyCraze.com and earned a 4.5/5 rating.